In what may be the most highly anticipated Finals in NBA history, the predictions for a series have never been so highly anticipated. While the trilogy for the Cavaliers and Warriors was expected to be a competitive tie-breaker this season, most experts and fans have written off the defending champions as the overwhelming underdogs. However, that assertion becomes a bit interesting when you block out the independent arguments of teams individually and look at the circumstances of the matchup.
Momentum was what finished Golden State last year when the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead. Momentum shifted in last year’s Finals because of circumstances – call it Draymond Green’s suspension or Andrew Bogut’s injury – but the Cavs found themselves in a less stressful situation down 3-1 than when the series started. Having so much to lose against a team with nothing but their backs against the wall created three consecutive trap games for the Warriors – all of which they fell for. Granted, their collapse was more than a result from mind games. It was influenced by heroic performances from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The Warriors also went scoreless in the last four minutes of their season due to the glaring lack of a secondary playmaker, hence the acquisition of Kevin Durant. However, circumstances definitely played their part. They might also play a part entering the Cavs and Warriors’ rubber match.
While comparing talent between these teams is an endless list of positives, there are differences to the teams that will fundamentally change their circumstances; specifically, the circumstances involving Game 1. Golden State boasts more youthful talent, for which they’ve risked continuity (ask Klay Thompson). Cleveland clearly carries more continuity, but their older talent is always at risk. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant may have injury tendencies, but everyone remembers what happened to Irving and Kevin Love in 2015 and the difference it made having those guys back in 2016. However, heading into Game 1 of the 2017 NBA Finals, the circumstances of continuity and talent actually favor Cleveland.
With over a week of rest for both teams heading into these Finals, Golden State will face a disadvantage of continuity while Cleveland enjoys an unprecedented amount of rest. Having just played 13 games over the last six weeks, the Cavaliers find themselves with enough practice but more importantly, enough health. Put simply, this situation works tremendously for Cleveland while the Warriors have shown weakness in Game 1’s coming off extended, sweep-induced vacations. In fact, their lowest margins of victory through the first three rounds all were in Game 1 – two of which very well could’ve led to losses (RIP Kawhi Leonard). Cleveland, on the other hand, plays better the more rest they get.
This year, within two days after a previous game, the Warriors outscore their opponents by an average of 15.5 more points than the Cavaliers outscore their opponents. However, as the days of rest increase, this margin takes a turn. The sample size for obscene amounts of rest may be small, but both teams had roughly the same number of games after at least three days of rest in the regular season and playoffs. When both teams have at least three days of rest, their margin of victories are similar. However, in the words of Colin Cowherd, “nine days of rest is just too much” for this young Warriors team. This season, Cleveland outscore their opponents by an average of 12.0 more points than Golden State when the teams get at least six days off. What’s even more exciting for Cavs fans is the record amount of rest given in between game days, with no less than two days off available at any point for the Cavs over the next couple weeks. Even if it isn’t detrimental to the Warriors, the rest surely gives the Cavs an edge.
On top of the rest, Golden State has issues that shouldn’t go unnoticed while they carry 93% Vegas odds in a year of redemption. The continued uncertainty about Steve Kerr and Klay Thompson’s 11ppg average against San Antonio are concerning if you’re a Warriors fan. Despite being at home in Game 1, Golden State bears the highest expectations and the least favorable circumstances. Game 1 – not Games 2, 5 and 7 – is Cleveland’s to claim home court in these Finals.
