Nell Redmond l AP
With a win on Friday the 18th, the Cleveland Cavaliers have clinched a playoff spot, leaving just seven more spots to fall in line in the Eastern Conference, while at the same time in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder has done the same, which means all teams that started the season as “contenders” have entered into playoff position. With the exception of teams like the Los Angeles Clippers, the playoff seating is a mess, with almost anyone able to take any seed. But let’s freeze time for a moment, pretend that the playoff bracket locked in today (March 19th) and look at the respective East and West pairings .
Eastern Conference
(4) Miami Heat vs (5) Charlotte Hornets
I have been really high on Miami since the start of the season, and boy have they underperformed. A team with two All-Stars, one of the top shot blockers in the NBA, a premier combo guard, and a top rookie prospect should at least look threatening to the Cavs’ title hunt. But with the emergence of Toronto as a fringe contender, and a newly buffed-up East, Miami fell flat of expectations.
That being said, the Heat are nothing to be trifled with. A returning Chris Bosh would make this team one of the top in the league. Dwyane Wade, any night, could revert to his 23 year old self. Goran Dragic is fitting in similarly to Kevin Love, but could still rain down shots. Hassan Whiteside is a force to be reckoned with off the bench. And more than anything, the creeping fear of Pat Riley’s disappointment motivates players to push themselves further than their current record. Even falling to fourth spot in the conference, it would be assumed that these aging stars would be able to pull out a win against a young, rebuilding, and injured team. Yet at the end of the season series, Charlotte was able to tie it with the final two games of which came down to the wire.
Charlotte’s offseason was marked not by their smart free agent acquisitions such as Jeremy Lin and Nicolas Batum, but by passing up Boston’s momentous overbid in the 2015 NBA draft of four picks for what would become Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky was part of the long term rebuilding plan that focused around Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Despite being 7’0”, Kaminsky provided a stretch-four option similar to that of Chris Bosh, Kevin Love, and Channing Frye, whose three-point shot and ability to switch onto guards make him a valuable asset going forward.
What Charlotte didn’t anticipate was their second best player, center Al Jefferson, going down with an injury, opening up minutes for Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky in a shooter’s lineup. Kaminsky quietly became a true scoring threat off the bench for Charlotte, however, right as that unit was finding its rhythm, Kidd-Gilchrist went down again, which led to another mix up for the Hornets’ roster. Unfortunately for Miami, the chaos seems to be settling in North Carolina, and this team has found a way to right the ship. It won’t be an easy ride, but experience and homecourt advantage will help Miami to eventually take the series
Prediction: Miami struggles in close games, but closes out 4-2.
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Bob DeChiara l USA TODAY Sports
(3) Atlanta Hawks vs (6) Boston Celtics
Less than a week ago, these seedings were reversed. Boston was a big surprise this season, going from a fringe playoff team to one step away from contender status. The Celtics continued to surprise, not acquiring an All-Star for the front court during the trade deadline, having Isaiah Thomas be named an All-Star, and keeping pace or beating teams expected to be contenders quite handily. If anything, it says more about the coach, Brad Stevens, transitioning his style of high-tempo college play to the NBA almost flawlessly.
Stevens is constantly mentioned with individuals such as Rick Carlisle, Steve Kerr, and Gregg Popovich as some of the best coaches in the NBA. Having no true superstar on his squad, and his utilization of young role players only emphasizes this point. His players are interesting as well. Bradley reminds me of Klay Thompson-lite, Jae Crowder shares more than a great hairstyle with DeMarre Carroll, and Isaiah Thomas reminds me of a far less crazy Ty Lawson. These guys, while not title contenders, are primed to make some noise in the playoffs this year.
When you mention great NBA coaches, however, another name constantly thrown around is Mike Budenholzer. Atlanta had to make a choice over the past offseason, and they opted to let DeMarre Carroll walk in favor of Paul Millsap, and that seems to be paying off. Trading for Tiago Splitter provided an alternative, but the synergy created by that 60-win squad the year before was lost.
Budenholzer, however, seems to have tapped into that Gregg Popovich charm, and has created a squad that, while less successful than the prior iteration, still manages to hold up without a true superstar. Regular season games do not paint a very clear picture for how the series would unfold. Wins by both teams against one another have come by 20-point margins, leaving no decisive favorite for the series. The real X-factor of this series will come down to experience, and even that is no guarantee. My best guess would have to be that Atlanta’s experience, both with their players, but also with Budenholzer and his learning from Popovich will turn the tides towards the Hawks’ favor.
Prediction: Atlanta wins the series 4-2.
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Brian Spurlock l USA TODAY Sports
(2) Toronto Raptors vs (7) Indiana Pacers
If you’re like me, you’ve seen enough upsets in the past day of March Madness to last a lifetime. Let me then prepare you, because this one might just be the biggest upset of the NBA playoffs. I’ve mentioned before that I see Indiana as a top three team in the East, whose largest issue is closing games.
Indiana has 14 games in which they lost by 4 or less points, and have an average margin of loss of 4.6 points. They play a gritty, grind out defense matched with a Spurs-esque offense. Paul George is at least an MVP candidate (if those even exist in the era of Steph Curry) and Myles Turner is a dark horse candidate for Rookie of the Year. Toronto currently holds the series lead over Indiana, but two games decided by less than 10 points and one overtime thriller show that this series would create some fireworks.
Toronto hasn’t exited the first round of the playoffs in a long time. However, “Raptor Killer” Paul Pierce moved to the Western Conference, and as a second seed almost assuring an easy first round matchup, it seemed like the team with the best backcourt in the Eastern Conference would finally make its breakout Cinderella story.
Indiana, however, would be the stroke of midnight on that fairy tale. A hot night for Monta Ellis might just break down the Raptors down. The real X-factor for the northern dinosaurs comes from DeMarre Carroll, a player who has seen less than a quarter of the season with Toronto. His ability to shut down Paul George and provide some scoring from the front court will be essential to the Raps’ playoff life. This series will most likely be down to the wire, and is the hardest to predict out of any first round matchups.
Prediction: Indiana Pacers take the Raptors down 4-3.
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Ken Blaze l USA TODAY Sports
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Chicago Bulls
If I were to pick a series that has amazing boom or bust potential, it would have to be this one. Cleveland and Chicago are long-time rivals, from “The Shot” to LeBron James’ five-year running record of knocking Derrick Rose out of the playoffs, the two cities are not generally fans of each other when sports are involved. Chicago is at a crossroads; they won the season opener against Cleveland back in October, and, despite the coaching change, got the endorsement from President Barack Obama, stating that in the end it would be a slugfest between these two teams in the East.
Early in the season, Joakim Noah went down with what looks to be a season ending shoulder injury, something initially seen as problematic. However, under new coach Fred Hoiberg, alleviating the log jam that was the Bulls’ front court provided a new excuse to experiment with a fast-paced, small ball offense. Unfortunately, that would not be the only injuries suffered. Pau Gasol, Jimmy Butler, and Mike Dunleavy all have or are missing significant time, causing the talent-filled roster to drop out of the playoff race entirely. If not for the heroics of Derrick Rose and the emergence of Bobby Portis as a scoring option, the Bulls would not hold this seat.
Cleveland, on the other hand, has seemed to have the Chicago Bulls figured out. The first meeting between the two ended with Cleveland losing by two in Chicago, without Kyrie Irving. Their second meeting was far uglier for Cleveland, losing by 13 points in a national TV rout. However, that loss lit a fire in Cleveland. During their third and most recent game, Cleveland exploited Chicago; playing LeBron at the four, shutting down Rose, and eventually winning by a final score of 106-95, after losing some of the lead in garbage time.
Forcing Jimmy Butler to match up against Iman Shumpert meant that he couldn’t contribute at the level normally expected, leaving LeBron James to challenge Taj Gibson or Bobby Portis, something they cannot handle. Waiting until the series has been completed (with one game left) to pass any final judgement, but it seems the Cavs are just finding their stride while the Bulls continue to tumble apart under injury and transition.
Prediction: Cavs take the series 4-1.
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Jayne Kamin-Oncea l USA TODAY Spo
Western Conference:
(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies
What team is least likely to keep their spot in the playoffs? If you guessed anyone besides the Memphis Grizzlies, I’m just going to correct you right now and tell you the answer is the Memphis Grizzlies. I genuinely feel bad for Memphis. They did well enough early in the season to virtually secure a playoff spot, but then their best player got hurt, and then they traded for practically every “toxic” player in the league, then they got injured again, and as of now they are running a nine-man roster, three of which are D-League call ups on 10-day contracts. Memphis has six eligible players for the postseason that are active right now.
The universe is telling Memphis it’s time to tank, but grit and grind just refuses to give up. They hold a three and a half game lead over Portland, and with only around 10 games left, it would involve losing out and Dallas winning at least one against Golden State for them to drop out of the playoffs entirely. If Memphis meets with the Clippers right now, a betting man would put money on a four-game sweep and I would have to agree.
Or would I? This is the Los Angeles Clippers after all. The same team that despite being up 3-1 to a struggling Houston Rockets squad threw the series, multiple times. The same team that once was host to Grizzlies “star” Lance Stephenson, the same team that is coached and managed by Doc Rivers. The Clippers may be the most inconsistent contender of all time, a feat that really shouldn’t be possible seeing that the lineup consists of one of the league’s best point guards, a shooting guard with the highest three-point accuracy in the NBA, a top five center, top veterans, and maybe Blake Griffin if he could make a comeback without negatively impacting synergy.
There is no conceivable reason beyond “this combination of players doesn’t work” that could explain why this team has never made it past the second round of the playoffs. This is arguably the least likely upset, even with Golden State playing an 8th seed in this bracket, that being said, never underestimate the Clippers’ ability to disappoint.
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Mark D. Smith l USA TODAY Sports
(3) Oklahoma City Thunder vs (6) Portland Trail Blazers
Just because the end results are predictable, doesn’t mean the ride won’t be wild. That is exactly what Damian Lillard is thinking no matter what team they end up facing in the playoffs. Portland isn’t even supposed to be here, they were supposed to be starting a full-scale rebuild around Lillard, knowing fully well that this year’s record would have nabbed them a high lottery pick. No one, not even the players or staff of Portland, would have faulted someone for believing that they could be a bottom three team in the NBA at the beginning of the year, but now they’re beginning to see what only a few believed.
The rest of the league saw Mason Plumlee, Al Farouq Aminu, and, most importantly, CJ McCollum burst onto the scene. The real story though is Damian Lillard proving that he is among the top point guards in the league, going off for 50 on multiple occasions and speeding up Portland’s rebuilding process exponentially. Sure, the Cinderella story ends here for Portland, but that being said, they made a tremendous run and a bright future awaits them.
When I look at the top teams in the NBA, I like to compare them to the players on my three-on-three team in college. Golden State is the casual, cocky one, but very much has the talent to back up his attitude. San Antonio is our point guard, quiet, witty, and arguably better than Golden State. I like to think of myself as Cleveland, both because I am from there, but also due to my incredible inconsistency, some games I’ll be fire, some games I’ll just drop off the face of the Earth for no real explainable reason, and I really don’t take 95% of the games seriously because it’s all about the playoffs. That leaves Oklahoma City, matching up with our 4th man. He’s the try-hard of our team. Really takes the game almost too seriously, and doesn’t seem to have fun until after the event is over. Every game is big, and he is talented, but sometimes it gets to his head and he ends up beating himself. He also has a terrible jump shot and every time he airballs, we yell “Dion” which isn’t nice, but really only helps drive home my point.
The Thunder takes basketball very seriously. You don’t see their bench going crazy during garbage time, when Russell Westbrook hits some nasty half-court shot, or really ever. Their best player, Kevin Durant, is a quiet character with a serious and formal attitude. Westbrook is so intense it’s scary. Enes Kanter seems like he tries to prove he isn’t a liability. Sure, watching the Thunder is fun due to the beauty that is Durant, or the insanity Westbrook brings, but something about them just feels like they aren’t having fun. We’ll see if focus and intensity can beat out calm and relaxed in the second round, but as of now, it seems like this team will be the fun police on Portland’s party.
Prediction: Oklahoma City wins the series 4-1, but don’t have any fun doing it.
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Thomas B. Shea l USA TODAY Sports
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs (7) Houston Rockets
We’ve got ourselves a good ol-fashion rodeo rumble here in the second round. The most consistent team in the NBA in San Antonio finds itself facing their Texas counterpart, Houston, in a match that only could have more show value if Joey Crawford announced he was coming out of retirement just for these games. On one hand, if Dallas is one of the milder mannered (excluding Mark Cuban of course) and classy organizations, then San Antonio wrote the book.
Everything about them, from their playstyle to Pop’s interviews and even their HEB commercials, show that they are an organization that gives back to the community, and plays with a sense of purpose. Houston on the other hand is one step away from Sacramento Kings-level chaos. They play a special brand of iso-ball, the kind that you play at a YMCA pickup game, where everyone vies to be the “one guy”. This leads to James Harden attempting 30 shots a game, Dwight Howard either going 30-30 or being nothing on the court.
Ty Lawson was a gamble that did not pay off even in the slightest bit, and the Rockets still do not have a full time coach. They have set themselves up for disaster, but only in the most chaotic, fiery, and enjoyable way. I look forward to any series that the Rockets find themselves in, because for every top five performance that James Harden shows us, there will be another 20% true shooting game to follow. Maybe a hot night by Harden could catch San Antonio’s starters off guard, but just like Dallas, Houston won’t be going anywhere.
Prediction: San Antonio keeps it cool and wins 4-0.
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Brandon Wade l AP
(1) Golden State Warriors vs (8) Dallas Mavericks
I feel that there needs to be a disclaimer at the start of the Western Conference section. The West has a total of two games separating the 6th and the 9th seeds, which means, despite time being frozen and us pretending this is the final bracket for the playoffs, these seedings may already be incorrect by the time this piece goes live.
That being said, it doesn’t really matter who ends up in the 8th, 7th, or 6th seeds because any one of those teams will be facing a team in a normal year that would be the clear title favorite. Golden State has somehow managed to make themselves look stronger than they were last year. Currently sitting at 62-and-6, the boys from Oakland need to win eleven of their next 14 to break the record set by Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls, a feat that by all means is possible.
With no disrespect to Dirk Nowitzki, Wes Matthews, or any of the other above-average players on the Mavericks’ end, there is nothing Rick Carlisle can do to win this series. The Warriors could rest players, limit Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to 20 minutes a game, and likely pull this one out.
The raw ability of Golden State’s roster should allow them to power through the first and second rounds without breaking a sweat. Unfortunately for teams like the Cavaliers, Thunder, Clippers, or the Spurs, Curry and the gang have found themselves matched up against a classy organization, so unlike Boston’s first round against Cleveland last year, an intentional injury is not as likely to occur to stunt Golden State’s progress.
Prediction: While a game or two might be close, Golden State blows out Dallas, 4-0.