There are very few, even those who claim Cleveland is a mess that think LeBron will fall short of his 6th finals appearance in 6 years. Golden State has made history, as the franchise is on its way to completing the best regular season in NBA history. Ironically enough, the Western Conference, which initially looked like a lock for Golden State to repeat, has started to look shakier with the entrance of San Antonio returning to their perennial status as contenders. The Spurs have also have a historic season. They’re not the only team on track to stay perfect at home during the regular season, but they are quietly playing up to the Warrior’s level in traditional San Antonio fashion. Recently, however, they’ve surpassed that level in power rankings. It’s an odd feeling to think of LeBron James being the underdog, but even as a team on pace for 58 wins this season, Cleveland has a monumental task to overcome with whichever western conference opponent rises from the wreckage. The question now is, who is the optimal Goliath for David to face off against this June?
Just because it would be a disservice to the fourth best team in the NBA, I guess I’ll quickly gloss over the Oklahoma City Thunder. These guys would clearly be Cleveland’s optimal matchup in the finals. During the regular season, Cleveland swept the season series without much thought. Though only winning by four points in their first matchup, The Cavs held a lead throughout almost the entire game. Not only that, but this game was played at half strength; no Channing Frye, very limited Kyrie Irving, and yet still the Cavs were a dominant force throughout. The second game in the season series proved that Cleveland’s superiority was not just a fluke. A vicious blowout in OKC cemented Cleveland as a true contender, and made the Durant/Westbrook pairing look far more fragile than it had ever been. The only real concern Cleveland should have if they end up running into the Thunder would be how the Thunder got there at all. If OKC wants to beat San Antonio and Golden State (a feat they will have to preform to get to the finals) there will need to be a dramatic increase in effort levels, meaning this team would be wholly separate from the one Cleveland saw in the regular season. Now that I’ve paid my due diligence however, let’s move onto the big boys.
@warriors
Let’s start with Golden State. They are known in the media as the clear favorite to come out of the Western Conference, and while they may look good, I mean really good, they show their cracks occasionally. Two things pique my interest when I look at Golden State, first, despite the media outright ignoring it, they fall into trap games and get lazy just like Cleveland. Their first loss of the season wasn’t to a contender, no it was to Milwaukee. They had to hit a buzzer beater against the 76ers and Brooklyn this season. The team is very, very skilled, but still is human despite what they are portrayed as. This “flaw” however will not be likely to be exploited. While in the first round against who I assume to be Utah, the team may still be gearing up for the playoffs and not fully focused in, by the NBA finals basketball is the only thing these men will have on their minds, and a lazy quarter would be rare, a lazy game, near impossible.
That being said there is a second weakness of the Golden State Warriors, and who better to have found/exploited it than the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State plays fast, they play so fast that other teams around the league have started to play fast so as try and emulate this crazy pace that Kerr’s Warriors feed off of. Gregg Popovich doesn’t buy into that nonsense. He has always played a game with the twin towers, hulking big men in the middle, and this latest iteration involving David West, Tim Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge proves to be no different. The Warriors performance is captivating, it makes other teams want to speed up to their level and play along with the game, which is exactly what Golden State wants, but Pop was not willing to oblige. The result of slowing the tempo down? A victory through well-executed half-court offense and a defense effort that held the offensive powerhouse that is the Warriors.
Cleveland has seen both sides of this experiment…
On Christmas day a limited Kyrie Irving forced Cleveland to play slow, keeping the game within four points almost the entire game, eventually watching Cleveland fall by only six. However the next matchup ended differently. Cleveland fell into the speed trap, under new coach Tyronn Lue they attempted to match pace, and got burned for. San Antonio might just be onto something, however it will take the next three regular season matchups, and a potential (likely) Western Conference Finals matchup to prove this hypothesis.
Speaking of San Antonio, they are quietly proving themselves to be the West’s best squad. Not only is there a culture of victory, led by a group of veterans who have ran the gauntlet before, but an “underdog” story fuels them. It’s hard to call a team which has amassed 61 victories with another 10 games still to play underdogs, especially when they likely won’t win 70 this season only due to resting, but sitting four games behind Golden State, this team is statistically an underdog. But despite Cleveland having pulled a win, a twenty point win at that, over the South Texas squad, they may have more to fear from San Antonio than they do from Golden State
Soobum Im | USA TODAY Sports
The reason Veterans are so important to a young team is because they show the young players the importance of buying into a system and listening to a coach, while still having the league knowledge to override what they feel to be a dumb decision. There is no better system, and no better coach in the NBA then Gregg Popovich, and that entire San Antonio team has been around long enough to know this. But it’s not just Pop, his staff consists of some of the best basketball minds from around the world, National Team Coaches, Euro league winners and College masterminds come together to form a support network that is the envy of even the top teams, and even if their team is outmatched in skill, those guys will read their opponents playbook just by watching footage.
Yes, the Cavs were able to beat the Spurs in a regular season game, and yes they kept the other one quite close, but talk of “playoff LeBron” means nothing when “playoff Pop” comes out to play. This man has never had a sub 50 win season with the exception of the NBA lockout in which there weren’t enough games played to reach that number. He already is looking at Cleveland and saying “how can we shut them down” and the answer is easy, stop the three point shooting. Golden State may be flashier, but boy does Cleveland heave up three balls like no one else. Those shots drop, which more often they do, Cleveland dominates, but if that is taken away, what paint game do we have. Mozgov catches lobs, TT can hit a midrange floater occasionally, LeBron is a tank but can’t do it alone. Shoving Kawhi out on the sides to lock down a shooter, and playing an even spacing between the minutes of Parker and Patty Mills should effectively shut down Cleveland’s backcourt. The question remains for them what to do about the stretch 4’s and how to deal with small ball.
I still personally want to see the Spurs over the Warriors in the finals, it would make me feel good knowing that Cleveland held at least one win over a team during the regular season, but there’s a quote I remember from a Bull and Fox segment on 92.3 the fan, which is that all of the championship calibre teams wake up in the morning and know they could win against any team in the NBA right now. Just like a shooter who has missed his last 5 shots knows that “this is going to be the one” when they release, San Antonio, Cleveland, Golden State and OKC know that “this year is going to be the year.” All that’s left to find out is who comes through on their promise.
