Teams that have made the biggest improvement; and how Cleveland can beat them
Everyone knows that the Golden State Warriors made a few significant upgrades to their frontcourt this summer in Zaza Pachulia and David West, oh yea and that Kevin Durant guy, but around the league this summer, the theme of the 2016 offseason has been “the rich get richer.” Indiana, Boston, and others have all made minor to significant upgrades in their quest to take the throne from Cleveland.
This week, senior writer Will Goodall will be taking a look at seven different teams from around the association, talking about their strengths and improvements, and most of all how Cleveland will beat them. Some teams (looking at you Toronto) have mostly stayed pat, and while still a threat, don’t look different enough to warrant their own article. Today we’re going to be taking a look at the East.
Boston
Notable Additions: Jaylen Brown (3rd Overall Pick, 2016), Al Horford (Free Agent)
Projected Starting Lineup: Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, Al Horford
The Rundown:
Boston is, in my opinion, the second best team in the East. They were already one of the better teams in the east, finishing off the year at 48-34, and has for two years now, been expected to land a superstar using their treasure trove of draft picks as bait. Turns out success alone was enough to lure one to Beantown. Al Horford may not be LeBron James, Russell Westbrook or James Harden, but after Kevin Love, he’s the best three-point shooting big in the NBA (LaMarcus Aldridge simply doesn’t have his range). Sitting in his prime, Horford has found himself at the tail end of a rebuild, jumping in right as the contention starts.
Kathy Willens | AP
Due to their ability to already contend for a top playoff spot in the east, Boston was able to spend their first round draft pick on a project player who will take several years to pan out. Many expected them to take European big man Dragan Bender to help bolster their front court with a three-point shooting big man, however, the Celtics settled on Jaylen Brown out of Cal, a small forward who can guard the two, three and the four. After losing Evan Turner to the Portland Trailblazers, Boston turned to the draft to replace this unique wing. Don’t expect to see many minutes out of Brown this year, but over time, Brown’s tutelage under Crowder may blossom into one of the NBA’s next generation starts at the small forward position.
Boston doesn’t seem to be done making moves yet. According to Philly.com writer Keith Pompey Boston is targeting Sixers center Jahlil Okafor. Likely trying to run Horford at the four instead of the small ball five, Okafor would help both the youth aspect of the Celtics, as well as providing another potential All-Star for Boston’s line-up. Boston has yet to resign true center Tyler Zeller, meaning that Boston still feels as if they have a shot at Okafor. However it should be noted that according to Pompey, Boston is not willing to offer very much for Okafor, partially due to the log jam in Philly’s frontcourt forcing a move, but also due to his history with irresponsibility over the past season. Boston has also been tied to Blake Griffin and Russell Westbrook, however, both of those rumors were dismissed as pre-emptive.
How the Cavs can beat them:
I won’t lie, this iteration of Boston looks good, and with Okafor they could look even better. They have depth at almost every position (except shooting guard), an All-Star Point Guard and Power Forward and some of the best contracts in the league. That being said, for every great player Boston has, Cleveland has a better one. Boston has a top 10 point guard, Cleveland has a top 5. Boston has a great small forward in Jae Crowder, Cleveland has the Best Small Forward of all time. Al Horford is almost unmatched in his deadly mix of shooting and post-game, except for by Kevin Love. Cleveland’s biggest strength, however, will be determined by the success of the Jahlil Okafor trade. Al Horford is looking to play the four, but without a true center, he will likely be forced to play the big man position for Boston. If that happens, Cleveland can exploit a weakness that they did against Atlanta. Horford’s weakest part of his game would be his shot blocking, and clogging the paint in general. Mildly undersized for a center, freight train LeBron doesn’t let anyone stop him from getting to the rim, and Horford isn’t going to change that. Additionally, Cleveland could once again take advantage of their three-point shooting, pulling up over the undersized Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder (when he’s playing the 4). When meeting Boston in the playoffs (likely in the ECF, at least on paper) Cleveland may not get the easy ride through the East that they’ve found over the past two years, but even with these upgrades, Cleveland simply outmatches Boston at almost every position.
New York
Notable Additions: Derrick Rose (Trade), Courtney Lee (Free Agent), Joakim Noah (Free Agent), Brandon Jennings (Free Agent)
Projected Starting Line-up: Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis, Joakim Noah
The Run Down:
If Boston is considered an example of slight improvement and tuning based on exactly what they needed, then the Knicks are Eastern Wild Card. On one hand, you could have a former MVP point guard, DPOY, arguably the second best SF/PF after LeBron, a stretch five with limitless potential, one of the best three and D guys in the league and a backup point guard who could start for many of the association’s teams all playing together at the top of their games, presenting themselves as a real threat to anyone in the East. Or… you could see none of them, because every single player on that list in incredibly prone to injury.
New York has taken the time to make some interesting trades. Shipping away their recently signed Center Robin Lopez in a deal with Chicago, they acquired a rental on Derrick Rose, former MVP and arguably the least durable player in the NBA. Rose no longer puts up the MVP numbers that made him the league’s leader in 2011, but his 2015-2016 campaign made it look as if there may be hope for him returning to a level at least above mediocrity. His partner in crime, Joakim Noah joins him, through free agency, to man the front court. The former DPOY also suffered a string of injuries last season, holding him to very low stats (4.3 points, 8.3 rebounds) last season. New York is hoping that Noah can appear in more than 29 games, his total from last season, but the two injured former stars may just be able to revamp the New York team.
While Rose and Noah may have been the largest names in the free agency frenzy this offseason, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings may actually provide to be better bets in the long run. In a similar way to how New York is playing rental with Derrick Rose, trading for him with only one year left on his contract, Brandon Jennings one-year, five-million-dollar deal looks to take a similar route. Jennings was seen as a critical part of the Detroit rebuild before the Reggie Jackson trade. Jennings brings questions with his injury, but on the safety of a one-year contract New York can test the waters on a rebuild. If for some reason Rose fails to impress, or is offered above what New York is willing to match next season, Jennings may provide a long-term solution at Point Guard for the Knicks.
Julie Jacobson | AP
Courtney Lee, on the other hand, is a proven commodity. Averaging 38% three-point shooting, he puts up around 10 points, two assists and one steal a game. Well known as an average to above average three and D wing player, he adds three-point shooting, as well as some grit on the defensive end. His long term contract looks good for a thirty-year-old towards the midpoint of his prime. Lee might be slightly expensive at 12 million a year, but he can help balance salary in a trade if failing, or provide the one solid healthy commodity in the Knicks starting 5.
How the Cavs can beat them:
New York might have some big names in Melo, D-Rose, Noah, Porzingis etc… but there are several weaknesses on this roster that Cleveland is almost designed to exploit. First and foremost, is New York’s size. Running Noah (a True Center), Porzingis (a 7 footer) and Carmelo Anthony (6’11 Power Forward) together creates a massive size issue in the front court. Especially with players such as Kyrie Irving, Kay Felder and Iman Shumpert, Cleveland can run a small roster to simply dance around these bigs. Cleveland saw immense success in the NBA finals running a combination of Richard Jefferson and LeBron James at the 3/4, and there is no reason that this combination won’t work against a larger, arguably less talented lineup in New York.
Cleveland could also take advantage of New York’s depth. While having some big names in the starting 5, New York has little in terms of proven bench talent. European players in Guillermo Hernangomez, Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Sasha Vujacic round out a roster whose second team is led by Kyle O’Quinn, Maurice Daly Ndour and Cleanthony Early. If you don’t know any of those players’ names, don’t feel bad, I didn’t know many of them until I looked them up myself. Cleveland definitely can outplay these unprompted rookies and journeymen during the rest time. Rose might have called themselves a super team, but an important part of a super team is that you can still keep a lead when the “super” aspect of the team sits down.
Lastly, there is one possibility that is true for any team, but is far more so on this New York team, and that is health. Rose, Noah, Jennings, Melo all have a history of injury and Kristaps Porzingis being thin and 7’1 is just as liable. If even one of these key players in the starting line-up were to go down, New York is liable for another year towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference.
Indiana
Notable Additions: Jeff Teague (Trade), Thaddeus Young (Trade), Al Jefferson (Free Agent), Nate McMillan (Coach), Aaron Brooks (Free Agent)
Projected Starting Line-up: Jeff Teague, Monte Ellis, Thaddeus Young, Paul George, Al Jefferson
The Rundown:
The Indiana Pacers aren’t a premier team, they aren’t a top dog in the East and they may not even make a top four seed in the East, that being said, teams ought to beware of their growing presence in the eastern conference.
Paul George is one of the best in the league, even following his injury. Playing like Carmelo and Durant, George can take over a game at any time. Moving him from small forward to power forward should help him in size matchups, while a more experienced group around George should help make Indiana a more competitive squad.
Trading was the name of the game for Indiana this offseason. Giving up their pick for a proven Small Forward in Thaddeus Young (arguably the second best player on the Brooklyn Nets, which is almost an accomplishment) earned praise from me. A young small forward will help provide some building blocks for a franchise that has seemed lost since their last ECF appearance in 2014, but to throw themselves into competitiveness, they needed something else. I’m not calling Jeff Teague the best point guard in the league, I’m not even calling him a top 10, but he provides another consistent scoring threat, something that George Hill wasn’t really able to do in Indiana. Monte Ellis simply isn’t consistent enough at the two option, making Teague a perfect fit in his hometown.
One other signing to take into consideration would be that of veteran journeyman point guard, Aaron Brooks. Having played for Phoenix, Chicago among other teams, Brooks brings professionalism and talent to a second unit that is desperate for both of those. Teague ran in a system in Atlanta that used twin point guards, running him and Dennis Schroeder for equal minutes during the game. Having a capable backup will allow Teague to get the rest he requires to keep up the pace he so effortlessly plays with.
Christian Peterson | Getty
Indiana also snagged Veteran big man Al Jefferson away from Charlotte. While not as proactive and productive as he was three years ago, Jefferson provided the Charlotte Second Unit a huge spark off the bench, basically running the second team’s offensive game. He also has been a successful rebounder on the offensive glass, which can provide Indiana with a real opportunity to make up for Monte Ellis’s inconsistent nights. While he may have been signed with the intention of playing center, his true role will come in mentoring potential future All-Star, Miles Turner. That being said, it would be foolish to ignore the possibility of Jefferson working well in tandem with George and Teague, packing a real punch on the offensive end.
One other new edition of note is head coach Nate McMillan. Feeling as if the team has stagnated under former defensive-minded coach Frank Vogel, Pacers president Larry Bird announced McMillan would be the new coach of Indiana. Known in the community as “Sarge” McMillan is a hard-line coach who has experience stabilizing franchises and winning games. He is an excellent choice to charge a rebuild, as from a front office perspective he will bring consistency and maturity to the rookie class Indiana is currently nurturing.
Speaking of Rookies, Indiana’s homegrown talent is looking to make a big year during the 2016-2017 season. Miles Turner should look to see a breakout season with veteran big man Ian Mahinmi leaving for Washington. Turner was already seeing rotation player minutes last season, and should look to improve further from that going into 2017 as he fights with Jefferson for a starting spot.
How the Cavs can beat them:
Similar to the Boston Celtics, The Indiana Pacers are simply outclassed by the Cavs. When it comes to SuperStars, George is good, but LeBron is great. Teague has been dusted by Kyrie two years in a row. Thompson might be smaller but he outrebounds Jefferson easily. Size wise LeBron and co might be mildly larger than the Pacers, but they aren’t oversized (like the issues plaguing New York and potentially Golden State). If (when) JR Smith re-signs with Cleveland, they will have a strong Three and D wing to stifle the energetic Ellis. Games will likely be close, as they were this year, but Cleveland should likely prevail on skill alone.
Detroit
Notable Additions: Ish Smith (Free Agent), Boban Barjanovic (Free Agent), Henry Ellenson (18th Overall pick, 2016)
Projected Starting Line-up: Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond
The Run Down:
Cleveland’s division is getting stacked. Be it the Frankenstein’s monster that is Chicago, a new and improved Indiana or whatever Milwaukee is trying to put together, there is a possibility that every single team in the central division makes the playoffs this year. If Cleveland is to fear any of these, name any of these teams the second best in its conference, it best be weary of the continuously improving power that is Central’s youngest team, the Detroit Pistons.
Barely sliding into the eighth seed last year is such an understatement for this team. Their offseason is an example of an A+, achieving everything they set out to do, and more. First and foremost they signed an extension with their star in Andre Drummond, leaving the franchise set for a face for years to come. They then fixed both major holes they had in a legitimate backup center (which they didn’t have) and a replacement for Steve Blake at backup point guard.
At backup Center, Detroit found themselves the same gem San Antonio found a year before. Entering his prime Barjanovic signed a three-year contract that will give Andre Drummond another big body to take his place when he needs to sit. Barjanovic has proven that he has the ability to play as a full-time starting center, putting up several double-doubles when Duncan sat and posted a career high 22 points 13 rebounds against the Dallas Mavericks. Barjanovic will be successful as a backup for Detroit, and at 7 million a year, he has a very cap friendly contract to boot.
At backup point guard, Detroit instead chose to go small and quick. Signing journeymen point guard Ish Smith to a three-year deal, Detroit has found a suitable backup to Reggie Jackson with a very similar skill set and athleticism. Ish Smith was one of the few shining lights in the garbage fire that was last year’s 76ers. He was arguably an average starter, posting a decent +/- during his tenure and generally running the floor with success. His time working with the 6ers should help him run a second team offense likely headlined by Stanley Johnson and rookie Henry Ellenson. That and almost anything is better than Steve Blake (Sorry Steve Blake).
Henry Ellenson is a bit of an enigma. He comes out of college billed as a traditional rebounding big. Scouts were hesitant on his ability coming out of college, many citing that he might have been taken higher if he had an additional year to develop in college. That being said he did post an average of 17 points and 10 rebounds a game. Ellenson isn’t Stanley Johnson, he won’t be ready to play with the big dogs year one, and will likely spend some time in the D-League, but very much has the potential to wind up being a third rotation big man for Detroit even by the end of the season and heading into the postseason.
How the Cavs can beat them:
Cleveland isn’t going to get away scar free from this next playoff matchup. Likely Detroit will force a dropped game against the champs due to their youth and athleticism, but just as almost every team does, Detroit has a glaring weakness. If Andre Drummond still cannot get his free throw shooting together, the last two minutes of the game simply cannot be played with Detroit’s best player on the court. Keeping pace with the Detroit offense for the first forty-six minutes of the game is a very realistic goal, and simply choosing to overtake the young upstarts over the finish line is one option.
Cleveland also could always choose to run a defensive-oriented group, and try to shut the athleticism down. LeBron has Tobias Harris’ number, and anytime he matches up against the champ, Harris has uncharacteristically poor games (worse than the normal player LeBron matches up against). Throwing out Shumpert as a potential backup point guard to smother Reggie Jackson, which JR takes out Caldwell-Pope virtually ends almost all scoring threat outside of Drummond, and leaves the Detroit team vulnerable to another similar intentional fouling strategy (likely with scrappy new center Chris “Birdman” Anderson).
No matter what approach Cleveland takes with this young, scrappy Detroit team, one thing remains consistent. While Drummond may hold the All-Star numbers, the true star of the show and most important aspect to shut down for the Cavs is point guard Reggie Jackson. The League showed hesitancy when Jackson was offered a near max last season, and now everyone is paying for that lack of foresight. Jackson has been excellent as a floor general, pushing his way into the top-ten conversation in an era marred by legendary point guards. Jackson can be attributed for nearly half of Drummond’s points, as they arose due to a crafty low pass. Jackson also has the speed and handles to make his own shots and drives, propelling an offense on his own without a superstar in the front court. Regardless of lineup, a switch sending anyone besides Kyrie Irving on Jackson is going to be necessary for success.